irish economy 2020

1. Given the interdependence of EU economies, the dynamics of the recovery in each Member State will also affect the strength of the recovery of other Member States. The virus has infected an estimated 15,562 people in the Republic of Ireland to date, with 687 related deaths recorded nearly two months after the first case in the country was confirmed. With a far longer period of disruption and lockdown taking place in the second quarter of 2020, economic output is expected to have contracted significantly more than in the first quarter.However, early data for May and June suggest that the worst may have passed. A piece from the Irish Examiner today on the above is here. The forecast baseline assumes that lockdowns will be gradually lifted from May onwards.The risks surrounding this forecast are also exceptionally large and concentrated on the downside.A more severe and longer lasting pandemic than currently envisaged could cause a far larger fall in GDP than assumed in the baseline scenario of this forecast. Unemployment is expected to rise to 7.5% this year but recover to pre-crisis levels by the last quarter of 2021, the report says.The Commission's spring economic forecast predicts the pandemic will trigger " very severe socio-economic" consequences for the global and EU economies, with the EU entering a recession of "historic" proportions in 2020.The onset of the pandemic changed Ireland's economic activity "dramatically", from a 5.5% real GDP growth performance in 2019 and the country entered 2020 on "a strong economic footing".The health emergency disrupted global value chains and affected large information and telecommunications companies registered in Ireland, the report finds.Domestic consumer activity slumped due to containment measures with people unable to access certain goods and services, while households postponed purchases of durable goods.The report states that private consumption is due to shrink by 9% this year and recover by 4% next year. Ireland’s economy grew 1.2% for the first quarter of 2020, in part boosted by exports, the nation’s statistics agency said on Friday. Ireland's economy will contract by 8% in 2020 and expand again by 6% in 2021 as the coronavirus pandemic takes its toll, according to the European … Despite the swift and comprehensive policy response at both EU and national level, the EU economy will experience a recession of historic proportions this year.The Spring 2020 Economic Forecast projects that the euro area economy will contract by a record 7¾% in 2020 and grow by 6¼% in 2021. Growth projections for the EU and euro area have been revised down by around nine percentage points compared to the The shock to the EU economy is symmetric in that the pandemic has hit all Member States, but both the drop in output in 2020 (from -4¼% in Poland to -9¾% in Greece) and the strength of the rebound in 2021 are set to differ markedly. In the absence of a strong and timely common recovery strategy at EU level, there is a risk that the crisis could lead to severe distortions within the Single Market and to entrenched economic, financial and social divergences between euro area Member States. The recovery is expected to gain traction in the second half of the year, albeit remaining incomplete and uneven across Member States.The shock to the EU economy is symmetric in that the pandemic has hit all Member States. Those with a high proportion of workers on short-term contracts and those where a large proportion of the workforce depend on tourism are particularly vulnerable. RTÉ.ie is the website of Raidió Teilifís Éireann, Ireland's National Public Service Broadcaster. Despite the swift and comprehensive policy response at both EU and national level, the EU economy will experience a recession of historic proportions this year.The Spring 2020 Economic Forecast projects that the euro area economy will contract by a record 7¾% in 2020 and grow by 6¼% in 2021. There are considerable risks that the labour market could suffer more long-term scars than expected and that liquidity difficulties could turn into solvency problems for many companies. It is based on a set of assumptions about the evolution of the coronavirus pandemic and associated containment measures. In the euro area, it is forecast to increase from 86% in 2019 to 102¾% in 2020 and to decrease to 98¾% in 2021. Unless policies are credibly announced and specified in adequate detail, the projections assume no policy changes.The European Commission publishes two comprehensive forecasts (spring and autumn) and two interim forecasts (winter and summer) each year. In the euro area, it is forecast to increase from 86% in 2019 to 102¾% in 2020 and to decrease to 98¾% in 2021.

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irish economy 2020