Twitter The European Commission has increased Ireland's growth forecast for this year. There is no doubt that US growth will slow next year: the question is by how much. Personalise your news feed by choosing your favourite topics of interest Click on the button below to get started. At the same time, US unemployment is the lowest it has been in half a century.The main reason US growth was so strong this year is the stimulus effect from tax cuts and higher public spending, but this will dissipate in 2019 and later years.
We may be near full employment, but there’s at least of a quarter million people outside the labour force that could be enticed back in. In its autumn 2019 Economic Forecast, it predicts that Irish gross domestic product (GDP) will grow by 5.6% for 2019. This is less so than in the past, partly because emerging Asia (and specifically China) has come to rival the US as the main driver of global growth. Journal Media does not control and is not responsible for the content of external websites. But, no matter how strong the fundamentals of the Irish economy may seem, the risk is that they resemble a house of straw in the face of a perfect storm.To embed this post, copy the code below on your siteAccess to the comments facility has been disabled for this userPlease note that TheJournal.ie uses cookies to improve your experience and to provide services and advertising. As yet, there is little sign that the Irish economy is overheating. An uneasy trade truce with China could give way to all-out war in spring, with a ratcheting up of tariffs feeding through to higher inflation, and potentially even higher interest rates. Different from a year ago, the US is a relative outlier. All have negative implications for growth. Much of the rest of the global economy has already begun to slow, led by Europe.Then there is Brexit. For more information on cookies please refer to our Journal Media does not control and is not responsible for user created content, posts, comments, submissions or preferences. No matter what type of Brexit – hard, soft or something in between – the island of Ireland can be expected to be hardest hit economically – more so even than Great Britain.If the US economy slows but continues to grow at 2% or more, and if Brexit is postponed, softened or cancelled, there is no reason that Ireland can’t continue on its current path for a couple of years at least. The greatest risks to the economy are the UK’s scheduled departure from the European Union ("Brexit") in March 2019, possible changes to international taxation policies that could affect Ireland’s revenues, and global trade pressures.
Continued uncertainty is likely constraining investment in some sectors, and it could be one of the reasons why consumer confidence has fallen off a cliff in the past six months despite the otherwise rosy economic picture.With no end in sight to the chaos across the water, fears are growing that the UK could crash out with no-deal in three months’ time.
Economist
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